Understanding the
forces that drive technology is fascinating. Today we have so many choices in
viewing movies from the comfort of our home. From going out and renting or purchasing
the latest DVD, Blu-ray disc or the latest iteration of video media, Ultra 4K
Blu-ray discs to several Video on Demand (VOD) options, such as iTunes and
Amazon Prime to Netflix and Hulu, there has never been so many available
options as there are currently (Valentini, 2012). As a Ph.D. student, studying Technology Education, one of my recent
course assignments prompted us to view a Science Fiction movie based on a story
by one of the leading Sci-Fi authors, Philip K. Dick, with the intention of
identifying emerged, emerging, and not yet emerging technologies. For my
assignment, I picked the movie Paycheck, starring Ben Affleck. Viewing this
movie through the lens of picking and placing the technologies featured within the
movie, into the three aforementioned categories of technology emergence was a
very conscious process for me. I believe I became more enthusiastic about the
future, in regard to our options of emerging technologies used in assisting us
in life from viewing this movie and conducting research on these technologies.
In looking through the
wide array of DVD and VOD options to view the movie Paycheck on my new 4K Sony
flat screen TV, I really had to do a fair amount of personal research, based on
the criterion of price, convenience, video display and sound quality to choose
the best viewing option (Valentini, 2012). To be honest, I really did not take into consideration rental or
purchase of a DVD or Blu-ray disc, for three reasons. First, I have not used a physical
DVD in the last five years or so, secondly because I do not own a Blu-Ray disc
player and lastly, from my research, I knew I did not have to leave the comfort
of my home to find a means of viewing this movie. In fact, I have not purchased
a new DVD since iTunes added video content, Movies, Music Videos and TV series
episodes, back in early 2008.
I remember being
very excited, back in 2008, that I could download a purchased movie to my Apple
MacBook Pro or Apple TV and then save the media file to my Terabyte (TB) Apple
Time Capsule, in a folder I labeled “My Video Media Library” to watch anytime I
would like. Well, I am currently on my second TB Time Capsule, dedicated to
movie and music media storage and going strong. I have recently started using
Apple’s iCloud service in conjunction with my iTunes account and other
streaming VOD services such as VUDU and Crackle and their cloud storage
services, to access my video and music media anytime, any place on any of my
devices. I enjoy all of the features of the DVD and Blu-ray disc experience
without having to go to a physical Blockbuster Video, Hollywood Videos store or to a
Redox DVD rental kiosk to secure a physical DVD or Blu-ray disc. Currently, I would be hard pressed to find a store
that is solely dedicated to video rentals and sales like Blockbuster or
Hollywood Video stores were just a few years ago. Coincidentally,
I use to work at a local Hollywood Video store, when I was in graduate school
working on my masters, just so I could grab a rental copy of the latest
theatrical releases of a movies before they were all rented out.
With the purchase of
my new 4K TV, I now have quicker access to a variable plethora of Video on
Demand services such as Netflix, Hulu, Sony’s new free streaming service Crackle,
Walmart’s paid streaming service VUDU, Amazon Prime VOD, UltraFlix 4K, Ultra 4K
Movie & TV and Dish Network’s VOD. With this much instant video technology
at my fingertips, coupled with the convenience of watching video content, right on-demand, no waiting, why would I ever think about going out to a physical
store or online to rent or purchase a DVD or Blu-ray disc? I have tried all of
the VOD services on my 4K TV and from personal experience the picture and sound
of these services are amazing. I would not think of paying extra for a Blu-ray
disc and a Blu-ray player to play the disc on? In addition, all of these VOD
services are available on all of my portable technologies, my iPad Pro, my
iPhone 6 and across all Android devices as well. As the two images below
indicate, my choice and a majority of other American consumers are choosing the
convenience of the Video on Demand format over the DVD format (Kumb,
Kunz, R., & Siegert, 2016). Therefore,
I decided to rent the movie Paycheck through VUDU’s 4K streaming service on my
4K TV, this movie was amazing, especially in 4K.
In understanding if
the competition between the umbrella terms and formats for DVD versus Video on
Demand (VOD) is an example of Increasing Returns or Red Queens, I had to really
stick to the facts and examples that Dr. Thornburg (2014e) impressed
upon our class. Thornburg (2014e)
notes that W. Brian Arthur is credited
with influencing and describing the modern theory of Increasing Returns.
The theory states that when two innovations hit the market at about the same
time, by chance, one technology gets locked in and drives the other to
extinction. Arthur tells us, “Increasing returns are the tendency for that
which is ahead to get further ahead, for that which loses advantage to lose
further advantage” (Arthur, 1996 p. 100). The concept or theory of Increasing
Returns comes from the branches of mathematics called Chaos and Complexity
Theory. W. Bryan Arthur used mathematic models to develop this theory, which is
a recognized force for the development of new technologies (Thornburg, 2014e). Arthur’s theory
concludes that emerging technologies do not follow a linear process; the
process is always nonlinear (Thornburg,
2014e). In addition, the best technology in many cases, does not win
out.
The example for Increasing Returns given by Thornburg
(2014e) was the late 1970’s Videotape Format War, that of the Panasonic and partnering
companies format (VHS) obsoleting the Sony and partnering companies format
(Betamax). While Betamax was superior in image quality, less trouble prone and
the overall superior technology it was still bested by the VHS format. The
sub-optimal VHS format won out and was adopted because Panasonic was successful
in convincing major film distributors to convert their movies to the VHS format,
before Sony did, thus bringing popular movies of the day to market quicker on
VHS. Here is a short video explaining the rivalry of the Betamax and VHS
formats.
How Sony's Betamax lost to JVC's VHS Cassette Recorder
A more recent example of Increasing Returns would be the High
Definition DVD Format War of the early 2000’s, pitting Sony’s Blu-ray disc
format against Toshiba’s HD DVD disc format. This time Sony and its’ partnering
companies were not going to lose out. As an educator, I am very impressed with
the young man, in the video below, explaining the history of the High
Definition DVD Format War.
HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray: How Sony won the format war
Thornburg (2014e) states that Red Queens are not as common
as the other forces that drive emerging technologies. In addition, Red Queens
happen when there is a huge competition between two technologies: in the
process of these two technologies battling, all other competitors are left
behind (Thornburg, 2014e). When we see two technologies that achieve a goal or
similar goals, shooting up and all other similar technologies falling aside, we
are looking at a Red Queen (Thornburg, 2013d, 2014e). The phrase “Red Queens”
comes from Lewis Carroll’s 1871 published manuscript, Through The Looking Glass,
where the Red Queen explains to Alice,
“Now, here, you
see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you
want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
As an example of Red Queens, Thornburg (2014e) discussed the rivalry between Apple’s computer hardware platform and the PC’s computer hardware
platform. Both companies waged war in competitive TV commercials, such as the I’m
a Mac / I’m a PC ad campaign, where each company was trying to best the other. Steve Jobs is quoted as
saying, “BMW’s don’t sell as well as Chevy’s, but I want a BMW. There are
enough people who want a BMW (Macintosh computer) to keep BMW (the Apple
hardware platform) alive and competitive (against the PC hardware platform) (Jobs
& Beahm, 2011). When the PC hardware format first came to market besides the
Microsoft and Apple hardware platforms, there were hardware platforms from Commodore,
Atari, and IBM, this an example of a Red Queen, because the Apple and PC
hardware platforms left all other competitors behind, many of which do not
exist any longer. Commodore was said to have the best platform out at the time,
but no longer exists, proving once again that quality or best technologies,
like Betamax do not always win out.
I view the battle concerning DVD technology versus
Video-On-Demand (VOD) technology to be an illustration of Red Queens. This is
because both technologies are still in existence (Rodriguez, 2016). While major
DVD rental and purchase stores like Blockbuster Video and Hollywood Video are
no longer in existence, consumers can still purchase DVDs from Big Box stores like
Walmart and BestBuy or online at Amazon or DeepDiscount.com. Consumers can also
opt to purchase a Video on Demand service such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu
or even Blockbuster, online or through several different formats of set top and
gaming consoles. Neither of these video technologies have pushed the other to
extinction (i.e., Increasing Returns). However, in the near future VOD’s Streaming
Video services may obsolete DVD’s, Blu-ray discs and the consoles needed to run
them (Valentini, 2012).
4K/Ultra HD Blu-Ray Discs: Everything You
Need To Know!
The DVD market is currently attempting to popularize Ultra HD
4K Blu-ray discs and their accompanying players, but is it too late? From
personal experience, I have seen an Ultra HD 4K movie streamed through a 4K TV
and also an Ultra HD 4K Blu-ray disc, played through an Ultra HD 4K Blu-ray
player. Both the Ultra HD 4K disc and players are very expensive, compared to
streaming a 4K movie, roughly $4 per movie rental, through a service like VUDU
directly to a 4K TV. From my experience, the picture quality was nearly the
same, but the cost was drastically different and not worth it to purchase an Ultra
4K disc for $30 each and the Ultra 4K disc player for $400 on top of the
purchase price of close to $1,000 for my new Sony 4K flat screen (Juklc, 2016).
 |
| Double-click to enlarge the image above |
Blockbuster Closes Its Last Store
In conclusion, Ultra 4K Blu-ray disc may become the best
iteration of the DVD to date, as far as home theater technology is concerned. Definitively,
a disc that convincingly projects movies on your home flat screen that look almost
as good as they do in the local theater, where currently movies are viewed
digitally in 4K could help save the DVD format in this high tech battle. Ultra
4K packs in four times the resolution of existing Blu-ray disc and players, over
8 million pixels, versus 2 million and this technology is accompanied by new
technologies such as high-dynamic range (HDR), which dramatically increases
color range, brightness and overall picture depth. Yes, Ultra 4K Blu-ray discs will
be everything the movie patron could ever want or wish for in a home video
format. And yet, this new technology is likely to be largely ignored by most
consumers because of price. For this reason, I will continue to view my HD 4K
content through the free and less expensive streaming VOD services that my 4K TV,
and Apple’s iTunes offer rather than purchasing Ultra HD 4K Blu-ray discs. Consequently, I believe the consumer convenience of being able to stream high quality HD 4K movies
from the luxury of our own homes will eventually lead the VOD market to obsolete
the DVD market.
Resources
Links to purchase DVD’s online:
DeepDiscount.com - http://www.deepdiscount.com
Blockbuster.com - http://www.blockbuster.com
Currently new streaming VOD service apps:
Crackle – Free Online Streaming Entertainment Service - http://www.crackle.com
VUDU - http://www.vudu.com/movies/
References
Arthur, W.B. (1996). Increasing
returns and the new world of business. Harvard
Business Review. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/1996/07/increasing-returns-and-the-new-world-of-business
Carroll, L. (1917). Through the looking glass: And what
Alice found there. Rand, McNally.
Fritz, B. (2016). Home-entertainment sales fall again. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from http://www.wsj.com/articles/home-entertainment-sales-fall-again-1452115876
Jobs, S., & Beahm, G. W. (2011). I, Steve: Steve Jobs
in his own words. Agate Publishing.
Juklc, S. (2016). Why 4K Blu-ray has a shaky future in home
entertainment. 4K.com. Retrieved from http://4k.com/news/why-4k-blu-ray-is-has-a-doubtful-future-in-home-entertainment-12053/
Kumb, F., Kunz, R., & Siegert, G. (2016). Research on the
motion picture industry: State of the art and new directions off the beaten track
away from theatrical release. Journal of Economic Surveys.
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014e). David
Thornburg: Increasing returns [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014g). David Thornburg:
Red queens [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
Rodriguez, A. (2016). Thanks Netflix: The worst
countries to be in if you’re in the DVD business. Quartz. Retrieved from http://qz.com/628917/the-worst-countries-to-be-in-if-youre-in-the-dvd-business/
Thornburg, D. (2013d). Red queens, butterflies, and
strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake
Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.
Thornburg, D. (2014).
Red Queens, Butterflies, and Strange Attractors: Imperfect Lenses into Emergent
Technologies. Licensed via Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 United
States License. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nd/3.0/us/ Third-party
images removed.
Valentini, V. (2012). In VOD we trust: Navigating the minefield of the ever-changing
distribution platform. The IDA. Retrieved
from http://www.documentary.org/magazine/vod-we-trust-navigating-minefield-ever-changing-distribution-platform
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